Release
Lab.

Rookie appeal weights are 18 / 8 / 4 / 1.8 / 1, from generational to long shot. Stars score 6 and other veterans 1.5. Top rookie appeal changes only the first rookie. Demand share is the player’s appeal divided by total appeal.

Effective buyers = potential buyers × demand × (0.65 + 0.35 × rookie appeal / (rookie appeal + 30)) × (1 − supply pressure / 200). Buyers are split into casual collectors (40%), player/team collectors (30%), set builders (20%), and chase hunters (10%). Budget multipliers are 0.5 / 1 / 1.5 / 2; willingness-to-pay anchors are $15 / $25 / $35 / $45. Each group’s demand is capped by affordable whole packs and reduced when price exceeds its appeal-adjusted anchor.

The secondary budget uses the same audience budget, its secondary allocation, and sell-through. Each subject receives a share based on appeal, divided across all minted editions. Subsets have a 1.3 design weight, parallels 1.05, and base 1. Additional supply dilutes value; low edition counts have no automatic multiplier. Estimated trades are capped by listings and allocated buyer demand. Listing rate affects completed trades, not the modeled reference value.

Base and featured pools are separate. Pack samples draw copies without replacement within each pack, then reset the inventory for the next independent sample. They describe an initial random pack, not 1,500 sequential openings. Exact hit odds use the same pools. Reserves are rounded down per edition; excess inventory is held outside the pack run.

This first study has one pack product, fixed checklist coverage, and fictional profiles. It does not model price discovery over time, utility rewards, crafting, burns, future releases, individual player careers, or real collector behavior. It does not choose an “optimal” price. Scenario settings and pinned baselines last until you leave or reload.