Collecting Is An Act. The Medium Is Meaningless. | They're All Trading Cards.

How I got here

I enjoyed the experience of Topps Bunt, but I was annoyed when I realized I didn't actually own what I was paying for and selling had to be done in a very sketchy way. When the first Topps set was announced on Wax, I was immediately bought in. I was traveling a lot for work at the time, which limited my ability to really enjoy cards--digital was a way I could enjoy ripping, building stashes/sets, and sell without having to be in one place. It was clear to me that this would likely be how I would collecting going forward and that has been mostly true since I was involved with Wax.

Core belief

While there's definitely a place for the digital trading card stuff, I'm really more interested now in the uniquely digital collectibles--both static and video. I think these are going to be very interesting down the road for player collectors, especially for rookies that have come out in this era. Future collectors are not going to be so precious about cardboard--at least a healthy percentage. They will want collectibles for their players. They will want to build sets. Digital are going to provide a whole ecosystem for people who've completed those in physical or just get burned out. They are worth taking seriously as a new type of collectible, but also a different type of collectible for the video products. As the ways we can interact with digital assets improves, the appeal will only get stronger.

Highest-conviction platform

My biggest conviction is with NBA Top Shot. I like the changes they've made this season, I like that their team seems to get why those changes were needed and why they are working, and I like the direction they are going on the tech side. A couple of things would make me stop acquiring more like not decentralizing the video assets or going back to past mistakes in future seasons. What would make me walk away would be some major issue with Flow if they showed no intention on moving to another blockchain.

Allocation logic

I'm basically down to two platforms where I'm acquiring right now: Top Shot and Sorare (MLB). I'm primarily focused on rookies right now and Top Shot has a strong rookie class this year that are minted at very attractive levels. If any MLB rookies start to pop this season, I'll pick up some of those on Sorare. I'm not playing the fantasy games as much this season, so I won't be spending much there this year. With these markets, I've found that stars are relatively overvalued and rookies are relatively undervalued. If you really believe on the product and platform, those overpays are fine and I've certainly done that. But rookies are really my focus.

The tension I hold

I think the questions about what happens to the platform and products if the company goes under are very valid. We've seen degrees of that play out already and it's the biggest barrier digital has for adoption in my opinion. We need some stability and seeing Fanatics come into the space eventually will help I think. The way I try to mitigate that is really understand the technical risks before buying into a platform. Do I understand what happens if the company goes under in terms of the asset storage and blockchain operation? If I don't have custody, is there a path to that which could be provided if there's an orderly wind down? Some would say I might overindex on this aspect, but I think it's really important to know what the worst case scenario looks like and decide if you're good with that risk.

Theory of value

Ultimately, I think scarcity will be a major draw for all of these collectibles down the road. It feels like a lot at times, but that's only because the active collector population is tiny today. In the grand scheme, these total mints are tiny. As for what differentiates one digital collectible from another in five-years, I'd go with the following: 1. Serial number economics -- premiums for special serials and low number serials growing exponentially as they become more and more difficult to obtain. 2. Unique digital collectibles -- I'm not sure how interested the mature digital collector is going to be in a physical-based collectible. I've changed my mind in recent years about this--I think if the collectible does something in presentation that is really interesting, that might work. But I think the digital-only designs are going to be of more interest long-term. 3. First appearances are overrated, I think. So many of these are going to have migrations and remints that will affect metadata that I'm not sure how much that will hold other than everything from a certain point back will be seen as "vintage". But rookies are going to be huge. They are the foundation of sports collecting and it won't be any different with digital.

What I'm building

The tobacco card metaphor gets abused a bit in the digital collector community, but there's some truth to it. I think we'll look back on this time after the NFT boom and before demand pop (with the mint counts adjust to meet that demand) as a Low Mint era. If digital collecting takes off like I think it will, we already have some of the most scarce collectibles that will exist in the space. Especially now that platforms are minting at a more sane level.

Physical vs. digital stance

I've moved away from physical almost entirely

I've collected for almost 45 years and I will always love physical cards. I just don't think ultra modern provides good value and I think there are a lot of serious risks to physical now, especially when selling. I prefer digital products and the overall experience at this point in my life.